The Effect of Estimating Parameters on Long‐Term Forecasts for Cointegrated Systems

This paper concerns Long‐term forecasts for cointegrated processes. First, it considers the case where the parameters of the model are known. The paper analytically shows that neither cointegration nor integration constraint matters in Long‐term forecasts. It is an alternative implication of Long‐term forecasts for cointegrated processes, extending the results of previous influential studies. The appropriate Mote Carlo experiment supports our analytical result. Secondly, and more importantly, it considers the case where the parameters of the model are estimated. The paper shows that accuracy of the estimation of the drift term is crucial in Long‐term forecasts. Namely, the relative accuracy of various Long‐term forecasts depends upon the relative magnitude of variances of estimators of the drift term. It further experimentally shows that in finite samples the univariate ARIMA forecast, whose drift term is estimated by the simple time average of differenced data, is better than the cointegrated system forecast, whose parameters are estimated by the well‐known Johansen's ML method. Based upon finite sample experiments, it recommends the univariate ARIMA forecast rather than the conventional cointegrated system forecast in finite samples for its practical usefulness and robustness against model misspecifications. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Forecasting in large cointegrated processes

It is widely recognized that taking cointegration relationships into consideration is useful in forecasting cointegrated processes. However, there are a few practical problems when forecasting large cointegrated processes using the well‐known vector error correction model. First, it is hard to identify the cointegration rank in large models. Second, since the number of parameters to be estimated tends to be large relative to the sample size in large models, estimators will have large standard errors, and so will forecasts. The purpose of the present paper is to propose a new procedure for forecasting large cointegrated processes which is free from the above problems. In our Monte Carlo experiment, we find that our forecast gains accuracy when we work with a larger model as long as the ratio of the cointegration rank to the number of variables in the process is high. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Collective bulk carrier delocalization driven by electrostatic surface charge accumulation

In the classic transistor, the number of electric charge carriers--and thus the electrical conductivity--is precisely controlled by external voltage, providing electrical switching capability. This simple but powerful feature is essential for information processing technology, and also provides a platform for fundamental physics research. As the number of charges essentially determines the electronic phase of a condensed-matter system, transistor operation enables reversible and isothermal changes in the system's state, as successfully demonstrated in electric-field-induced ferromagnetism and superconductivity. However, this effect of the electric field is limited to a channel thickness of nanometres or less, owing to the presence of Thomas-Fermi screening. Here we show that this conventional picture does not apply to a class of materials characterized by inherent collective interactions between electrons and the crystal lattice. We prepared metal-insulator-semiconductor field-effect transistors based on vanadium dioxide--a strongly correlated material with a thermally driven, first-order metal-insulator transition well above room temperature--and found that electrostatic charging at a surface drives all the previously localized charge carriers in the bulk material into motion, leading to the emergence of a three-dimensional metallic ground state. This non-local switching of the electronic state is achieved by applying a voltage of only about one volt. In a voltage-sweep measurement, the first-order nature of the metal-insulator transition provides a non-volatile memory effect, which is operable at room temperature. Our results demonstrate a conceptually new field-effect device, extending the concept of electric-field control to macroscopic phase control.     

Sulphur isotope evidence for an oxic Archaean atmosphere

The presence of mass-independently fractionated sulphur isotopes (MIF-S) in many sedimentary rocks older than approximately 2.4 billion years (Gyr), and the absence of MIF-S in younger rocks, has been considered the best evidence for a dramatic change from an anoxic to oxic atmosphere around 2.4 Gyr ago. This is because the only mechanism known to produce MIF-S has been ultraviolet photolysis of volcanic sulphur dioxide gas in an oxygen-poor atmosphere. Here we report the absence of MIF-S throughout approximately 100-m sections of 2.76-Gyr-old lake sediments and 2.92-Gyr-old marine shales in the Pilbara Craton, Western Australia. We propose three possible interpretations of the MIF-S geologic record: (1) the level of atmospheric oxygen fluctuated greatly during the Archaean era; (2) the atmosphere has remained oxic since approximately 3.8 Gyr ago, and MIF-S in sedimentary rocks represents times and regions of violent volcanic eruptions that ejected large volumes of sulphur dioxide into the stratosphere; or (3) MIF-S in rocks was mostly created by non-photochemical reactions during sediment diagenesis, and thus is not linked to atmospheric chemistry.     

Structural basis for the spectral difference in luciferase bioluminescence

Fireflies communicate with each other by emitting yellow-green to yellow-orange brilliant light. The bioluminescence reaction, which uses luciferin, Mg-ATP and molecular oxygen to yield an electronically excited oxyluciferin species, is carried out by the enzyme luciferase. Visible light is emitted during relaxation of excited oxyluciferin to its ground state. The high quantum yield of the luciferin/luciferase reaction and the change in bioluminescence colour caused by subtle structural differences in luciferase have attracted much research interest. In fact, a single amino acid substitution in luciferase changes the emission colour from yellow-green to red. Although the crystal structure of luciferase from the North American firefly (Photinus pyralis) has been described, the detailed mechanism for the bioluminescence colour change is still unclear. Here we report the crystal structures of wild-type and red mutant (S286N) luciferases from the Japanese Genji-botaru (Luciola cruciata) in complex with a high-energy intermediate analogue, 5'-O-[N-(dehydroluciferyl)-sulfamoyl]adenosine (DLSA). Comparing these structures to those of the wild-type luciferase complexed with AMP plus oxyluciferin (products) reveals a significant conformational change in the wild-type enzyme but not in the red mutant. This conformational change involves movement of the hydrophobic side chain of Ile 288 towards the benzothiazole ring of DLSA. Our results indicate that the degree of molecular rigidity of the excited state of oxyluciferin, which is controlled by a transient movement of Ile 288, determines the colour of bioluminescence during the emission reaction.     

Powerful hepatoprotective and hepatotoxic plant oligostilbenes,isolated from the Oriental medicinal plantVitis coignetiae (Vitaceae)

The methanol extract of the Oriental medicinal plantVitis coignetiae (Vitaceae) showed hepatoprotective activity in the in vitro assay method using primary cultured rat hepatocytes. Activity-guided fractionation of the extract afforded -viniferin as an active principle. The protective effect of -viniferin against mice carbon tetrachloride-induced hepatic injury in mice was shown by serum enzyme assay as well as by pathological examination. In addition to -viniferin, plant oligostilbenes, ampelopsins A, C, F and the mixture of vitisin A andcis-vitisin A were also present in the extract. Among them, ampelopsin C and the mixture of vitisin A andcis-vitisin A were found to be powerful hepatotoxins.     

Functional DNA Materials Controlled by Surrounding Conditions

1 Results Addressable, controllable, and switchable supramolecular devices can provide keys to regulate the structure and function of nanomaterials. From this viewpoint, oligonucleotides are promising supramolecular materials because their assembly is addressable and they can be programmed. The G-quadruplexes of the oligonucleotide possess at least two important aspects: functions in vivo and applications in vitro. In addition, it is demonstrated that the G-quadruplex is promising for nanomolecular mach...     

Molecular identification of a renal urate anion exchanger that regulates blood urate levels

Urate, a naturally occurring product of purine metabolism, is a scavenger of biological oxidants implicated in numerous disease processes, as demonstrated by its capacity of neuroprotection. It is present at higher levels in human blood (200 500 microM) than in other mammals, because humans have an effective renal urate reabsorption system, despite their evolutionary loss of hepatic uricase by mutational silencing. The molecular basis for urate handling in the human kidney remains unclear because of difficulties in understanding diverse urate transport systems and species differences. Here we identify the long-hypothesized urate transporter in the human kidney (URAT1, encoded by SLC22A12), a urate anion exchanger regulating blood urate levels and targeted by uricosuric and antiuricosuric agents (which affect excretion of uric acid). Moreover, we provide evidence that patients with idiopathic renal hypouricaemia (lack of blood uric acid) have defects in SLC22A12. Identification of URAT1 should provide insights into the nature of urate homeostasis, as well as lead to the development of better agents against hyperuricaemia, a disadvantage concomitant with human evolution.